Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 75012.274654 79229.766518 83449.543711 87985.387571 92720.006218 97513.271809 102729.671940
2026-02-08 68192.108996 74619.294970 81231.369469 88532.770835 96359.910954 104489.420376 113561.878117
2026-02-15 62892.131705 70788.261152 79092.625620 88458.468417 98708.259351 109565.098697 121914.885174
2026-02-22 59687.011662 68772.960475 78504.386474 89671.255552 102098.813764 115472.220984 130918.627183
2026-03-01 56834.449405 66852.638758 77755.575623 90456.837775 104798.666354 120443.137327 138749.619805
2026-03-08 53876.930087 64588.825909 76418.847584 90390.512368 106375.225894 124025.974906 144921.994587
2026-03-15 51542.848428 62875.164011 75558.944725 90726.621229 108286.321182 127889.753640 151339.935326
2026-03-22 50183.497441 62186.782017 75784.406941 92227.242260 111465.034375 133151.423635 159332.344569
2026-03-29 48732.299562 61298.959927 75698.543529 93295.511196 114088.719409 137742.427536 166543.527459
2026-04-05 47225.391238 60263.193249 75367.133071 94011.040253 116249.475035 141765.252200 173084.516051
2026-04-12 45438.271752 58808.743581 74465.492382 93982.253402 117475.772109 144656.675927 178279.863084
2026-04-19 43897.165027 57587.048590 73782.846130 94160.213447 118902.532881 147753.033806 183702.267034
2026-04-26 42253.095427 56196.256145 72863.716282 94032.185727 119959.078256 150428.398995 188671.385081
2026-05-03 41091.216334 55362.811787 72590.144126 94662.743518 121916.702220 154179.423091 194946.582797
2026-05-10 39661.870300 54138.580093 71785.752277 94596.020785 122989.073551 156844.086705 199909.218625
2026-05-17 38968.009701 53819.847824 72084.513887 95879.459309 125712.085568 161512.815509 207322.569300
2026-05-24 38107.698259 53252.041868 72040.492066 96709.611627 127858.983109 165477.211075 213892.585421
2026-05-31 36887.092222 52173.733989 71310.807195 96639.707795 128855.622469 168013.704110 218708.929928
2026-06-07 35921.213282 51396.188259 70935.971882 96994.644191 130366.892054 171177.313722 224304.670123
2026-06-14 35541.598062 51377.763053 71526.771866 98579.039480 133434.351675 176286.835406 232344.360295
2026-06-21 34989.432720 51107.132806 71772.800604 99706.785347 135917.493281 180674.938074 239509.033353
2026-06-28 34309.914312 50641.387700 71743.862412 100462.079315 137916.157543 184457.772216 245932.958959
2026-07-05 33342.054803 49753.959247 71132.353490 100431.693857 138885.087572 186932.545731 250713.395448